We’re less than 10 days away from one of the biggest fights of the year between WBO Welterweight World Champion Miguel Cotto 34-1 (27 KO’s) and challenger Manny Pacquiao 48-3-2 (37 KO’s). In a highly anticipated match-up, here’s my take on the fight and my prediction of the outcome.
Let’s start with the champ, Cotto. He’s very obviously the bigger man in the fight, spending most of his career between 140-147 lbs. Cotto brings a lot to the table offensively. He has very respectable hand speed, big power, and a debilitating body attack. His defense is not his strong suit, but I wouldn’t call him overly hittable. Cotto is an intelligent fighter who adapts well, and he proved in his wins over Shane Mosley and Zab Judah he can negate hand speed very well. I give Cotto the advantage in almost every category against Pacquiao except hand speed and foot speed, but I think only one of these will actually be a factor. Cotto should have no problem negating Manny’s hand speed, but I think Pacquiao’s lateral movement could be the difference maker in the fight. The same lateral movement that may also negate Cotto’s brutal body attack. If Manny darts in and out like he did against Hatton and De La Hoya, it will prove extremely difficult for Cotto to put some body work in the bank for the later rounds. Cotto has proved toughness, and though he has been shaken a few times in fights, his only loss came as a stoppage against now suspended Antonio Margarito. Whether or not Margarito had tampered hands during this fight will never be known, but this is one fan who would love to see the rematch.
As for Pacquiao, he’s somewhat of a freak of a fighter. For a man who turned pro at 16 years old weighing 106 lbs. to have a fight against a legitimate welter weight is unreal. To be fighting for his 7th world title in as many weight classes has guaranteed a place in Canastota. The surprising thing about him is how well he’s brought his power up, and how well his body has handled the many wars he’s been through with Barrera, Morales, Marquez, etc. He should defiantly be showing more ring wear than he does. He possesses blazing hand speed, one punch KO power, and feet speed/lateral movement that are second to none. His offense is his defense, and that defense itself is leaky. I think Manny’s best chance in this fight is to dart in and out and use that lateral movement to make Cotto continually change angles. If he tries to go toe-to-toe this fight could end very early. Even coming off the spectacular knockout of Ricky Hatton, it’s very hard to tell if he can bring that power up yet another weight class. And Cotto’s chin is much better than Ricky’s. Manny also has never been in with someone who hits as hard or is as strong as Cotto is. Now for the prediction.
I give Manny two ways to win this fight. One, as stated before, is to use angles and movement to keep Cotto changing foot position and chase Manny around the ring. This will keep Cotto from starting a steady body attack, and may frustrate him into making a mistake. The second way will be the combo he used against Hatton (right hand, roll under). While Cotto has good defense, I don’t think his reaction time will be fast enough to prevent it. I can’t see Manny getting a stoppage, I think for him to win he has to stay moving for all 12 rounds and get a decision. That being said I think Cotto is just too big of a man. You can’t judge him on the Clottey fight because A) He was cut early and had to deal with that, and B) nobody looks good against Clottey. I don’t think Cotto’s body attack will play a role in this fight, but his ability to take away opponents hand speed, as well as walk an opponent down with constant pressure will be more than Manny can handle. I see Pacquiao starting strong but Cotto coming on late. I predict a 12 UD for Cotto, and possibly a late round stoppage. Either way I think we’re in for one unforgettable fight.
By: Ray Vipond
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